The next generation of London Tube trains
A new generation of London Underground trains enters service during 2022,
* remaining in operation for 40 years.
*
The aging Tube network had been underinvested for decades – resulting
in ever-worsening delays, overcrowding and safety issues. In the early
21st century, however, a massive programme of upgrades and modernisation
was initiated. This included a £16bn ($26bn) project announced by
Transport for London in October 2014, intended to fundamentally overhaul
its rolling stock.
Credit: Transport for London/PriestmanGoode
These futuristic new carriages were designed to accommodate the
city's rapidly increasing population (forecast to grow by 37% to 11
million by 2050),
*
address safety concerns, improve usability for the disabled and offer a
more pleasant overall experience for travellers. Step-free trains and
wider doors would enable those in wheelchairs to have seamless access
from platform to carriage, while door barriers placed on the edge
(already introduced on the Jubilee Line) could prevent suicides or
accidents.
With trains designed to be more spacious and easier to board – in
combination with modern signalling and control systems – a faster, more
frequent and more reliable service could be provided. The Piccadilly
line, for example, serving many of London's top tourist attractions,
would have its capacity boosted by 60%, equivalent to an extra 19,000
customers per hour.
In the past, summer temperatures and humidity on some lines were known to reach levels unsuitable for cattle transport.
*
All of these new carriages now featured air conditioning, for vastly
improved comfort. In addition, hi-tech electronic displays could provide
real-time information, while better lighting created a "living room"
feel.
The New Tube is first introduced on the Piccadilly line in 2022,
followed by the Bakerloo, Central and Waterloo & City lines.
Self-driving trains are deployed from 2030.
*
These had already been present on some parts of the network, such as
the Docklands Light Railway (DLR) in the Canary Wharf financial
district. As they become widespread on the main Tube lines as well,
these automated systems bring to an end the notorious union strikes
which had caused severe disruption in earlier decades.
2022
The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on
Human-engineered
fusion was already demonstrated on a small scale. The problem has
been finding ways of scaling it up to commercial levels in an efficient,
economical, and environmentally benign way.
ITER – previously known as the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor
– aims to be the first project to achieve this. Built in southern France
at a cost of €20 billion, it has taken over a decade to construct
and is among the largest scientific projects ever undertaken, second
only to the International Space Station. This joint research experiment
is funded by the US, EU, Japan, Russia, China, India and South Korea.
To demonstrate
net fusion power on a large scale, the reactor must simulate the conditions
at the Sun's core. For this, it uses a magnetic confinement device
called a tokamak. This doughnut-shaped vacuum chamber generates a powerful
magnetic field that prevents heat from touching the reactor's walls.
Tiny quantities of fuel are injected into and trapped within the chamber.
Here they are heated to 100 million degrees, forming a plasma. At such
high temperatures, the light atomic nuclei of hydrogen become fused
together, creating heavier forms of hydrogen such as deuterium and tritium.
This releases neutrons and a huge amount of energy.
Following
its operational activation in 2022,
* it
is hoped that ITER will eventually produce over 500 megawatts of
power, in bursts of 400 seconds or more. This compares with 16 MW for
the Joint European Torus (JET) in 1997, the previous world record peak
fusion power, which lasted only a few seconds.
ITER will
require many more years before its reactor has been sufficiently
perfected. To generate the sort of continuous levels of power required
for commercial operation, it will need a way of holding the plasma in
place at the critical densities and temperatures. This will need refinements
in the design of the chamber, such as better superconducting magnets
and advances in vacuum systems.
However,
it could ultimately lead to a revolution in energy. If this project
were to succeed, humanity would gain a virtually unlimited supply of
clean, green electricity.
*
Credit:
ITER
Solar grid parity has been reached in almost 10% of the United States
Grid parity is defined as the point at which renewable energy is
equal to, or cheaper than, utility grid electricity – without government
subsidies. In the case of solar, although a number of factors are
involved, countries with more sunshine tend to achieve this landmark
sooner.
* In the US, regions such as California and Hawaii were among the first states to reach grid parity.
Click to enlarge
US photovoltaic solar resources. Credit:
NREL
From 2010 onwards there was explosive growth of installed solar capacity both in the US
*
and around the world. Dramatic falls in cost, faster production through
automation, new materials and efficiency improvements, concerns over
global warming, new financing models and the increasingly competitive
market with China and other countries, all helped in boosting the
deployment of solar.
The bankruptcy of Solyndra (awarded hundreds of millions of
dollars through a federal loan guarantee program) received much coverage
in the US media. However, this was less a failure of the industry and
more due to the success of competition in driving down prices.
Solyndra's panels were made from copper indium gallium selenide –
nonsilicon technology. Although this was expensive, it was competitive
in 2008 when silicon prices were high. When the cost of silicon fell,
so did the price of silicon panels, making Solyndra's technology
obsolete.
*
The growth trend for solar would continue throughout the 2010s
and into the following decade, with prices plummeting still further.
*
Traditional utility companies were beginning to face enormous
competition from inexpensive rooftop solar power, even in northern
states like Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.
*
By 2022, almost 10% of the US has reached solar grid parity.
*
This is helping to mitigate some of the economic damage caused by
rising oil prices. By 2030, a nationwide "smart grid" has been
established across the country, able to intelligently manage and
distribute solar energy to precisely where it is most required.
* By the 2040s, even solar from space is commercially feasible
* and by mid-century, solar dominates the global energy supply.
*
Germany
phases out nuclear energy
After the
Fukushima disaster in Japan, a number of countries began to reconsider
their use of nuclear power. Germany was among the nations to abandon
this form of energy altogether. Its government had originally planned
to keep plants running until 2036, but this schedule was brought forward.
Seven plants which had been temporarily shut down for testing in 2011,
and an eighth taken offline for technical problems, would remain closed
permanently. The remaining nine plants would be shut down by 2022.
Prior to
this phasing out, nuclear power in Germany had produced a quarter
of the country's electricity and the industry employed some 30,000 people.
The shortfall would be made up by renewables, a temporary increase in coal use
* and the cutting of electricity usage by 10 percent through more efficient
machinery and buildings.
*
Germany's
nuclear plants in 2011, showing the zones of radiation in a potential
worst-case scenario, as happened with Fukushima. According to this map,
large areas of north and south Germany would be made uninhabitable if
all plants were to meltdown.
Qatar
hosts the FIFA World Cup
Qatar is
a tiny Persian Gulf nation of just 1.7 million people. It has the second
highest GDP per capita in the world, owing to its massive natural gas
deposits. It becomes the first country in the Middle East to host the
World Cup.
Summers
in Qatar can reach 50°C. However, each stadium employs state-of-the-art
cooling technology, capable of reducing temperatures by over 20 degrees
celsius. The upper tiers can be disassembled after the tournament and
donated to countries with less developed sports infrastructure.
One of
the stadia includes a 420,000 sq ft media facade, covering almost the
whole exterior. This futuristic screen displays news, adverts, tournament
information and live matches to viewers outside.
*
China's first space station is complete
China's efforts to develop low Earth orbit (LEO) space station capabilities began with a
space laboratory phase,
consisting of three "Tiangong" space modules launched in 2011, 2013 and
2015, respectively. These were small and experimental modules intended
to demonstrate the rendezvous and docking capabilities needed for a much
larger space station complex. They were designed for short stays with
crews of three.
The larger, modular space station begins to take shape in 2020,
using the previous separate components which are arranged as a Core
Cabin Module (CCM), Laboratory Cabin Module I (LCM-1) and Module II
(LCM-2), a "Shenzhou" crewed vessel and a cargo craft for transporting
supplies and lab facilities.
The multiphase construction program is completed by 2022. The
complex weighs approximately 60,000 kilograms (130,000 lb) and will
support three astronauts for long-term habitation. It has a design
lifetime of ten years.
*
Credit: Chinese Society of Astronautics
The
European Extremely Large Telescope is operational
This
revolutionary new telescope is built in Cerro Armazones,
Chile, by the European Southern Observatory (ESO), an intergovernmental
research organisation supported by fifteen countries. It has the aim of
observing the
universe in greater detail than even the Hubble Space
Telescope.
A mirror
of 39 metres (129 ft) will be powerful enough to study the atmospheres
of extrasolar planets. It will also perform "stellar archaeology"
– measuring the properties of the first stars and galaxies, as well
as probing the nature of dark matter and dark energy.
Originally planned for 2018,
* the observatory is delayed until 2022 due to financial problems.
* The mirror is also reduced in size slightly, having previously been 42m.
Credit:
ESO
The Large Synoptic Survey Telescope begins full operations
Joining
the European Extremely Large Telescope this year is another
observatory, the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), beginning full
operations for a ten-year study.
* This wide-field "survey" reflecting telescope is located on the 2,715 m (8,907 ft) Cerro Pachón, a mountain in northern Chile.
The LSST design is unique among large telescopes in having a very
wide field of view: 3.5 degrees in diameter or 9.6 square degrees. For
comparison, both the Sun and Moon, as seen from the Earth, are 0.5
degrees across or 0.2 square degrees. Combined with its large aperture,
this provides it with a spectacularly large collecting power of 319
m²degree². In other words, vast amounts of data can be obtained
simultaneously over huge areas of sky.
The observatory has a 3.2 gigapixel camera, taking 200,000
pictures (1.28 petabytes uncompressed) per year, far more than can be
reviewed by humans. Managing and effectively data mining this enormous
output is among the most technically difficult parts of the project,
requiring 100 teraflops of computing power and 15 petabytes of storage.
The main scientific goals of the LSST include:
- Measuring weak gravitational lensing in the deep sky to detect signatures of dark energy and dark matter;
- Mapping small objects in the Solar System, particularly near-Earth asteroids and Kuiper belt objects;
- Detecting transient optical events such as novae and supernovae;
- Mapping the Milky Way.
Data from the telescope (up to 30 terabytes per night) is made available by Google as an up-to-date interactive night-sky map.
