The ExoMars rover touches down on Mars
ExoMars is a joint mission between ESA and the Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) which is divided into two parts. The first phase of the mission is launched in 2016, arriving nine months later. This consists of an orbiter – ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter – which maps sources of methane and other gases on Mars, to determine the best location for a rover to study. It also contains a static demonstration module to prove the landing site is viable.
The second phase is launched in 2018, arriving in 2019 with the ExoMars rover built by ESA. This lands on Mars using a "sky crane" system, in which four rockets slow the descent once the main parachute has been deployed.
The rover's primary objective is to determine any signs of microbial life on Mars, past or present. It is equipped with a drill that bores down two meters below the surface to retrieve samples. These are transferred to a miniature laboratory inside the rover. This contains a sensor for biological molecules, infrared and X-ray spectroscopes that catalog the mineralogical makeup of the sample, together with imaging devices.
Located in the drill structure is another infrared spectrometer which studies the inside surface of the bore hole. ExoMars uses ground-penetrating radar to search for ideal locations at which to drill. The mission is almost entirely automated, as the rover uses imaging cameras to create a 3D map of the terrain in order to avoid obstacles. It has a lifespan of six months, travelling approximately 100 metres each day and testing dozens of different samples.
Alongside the ESA rover, NASA had originally planned to include its own – the Mars Astrobiology Explorer-Catcher (MAX-C). However, this was cancelled in 2011 due to budget cuts. The remaining program lays the foundation for the first Mars sample return mission, to be carried out in the 2020s.*
The New Horizons probe arrives at Kuiper Belt Object 2014 MU69
After visiting Pluto and its moons in 2015, NASA's New Horizons probe began heading towards the Kuiper Belt – a remote ring of icy debris that surrounds our Solar System. The spacecraft performed a series of four manoeuvres in October and November 2015. These propulsions were the most distant trajectory correction ever performed by any space probe. New Horizons was now on course for a rendezvous with 2014 MU69, a Kuiper Belt object located a billion miles beyond Pluto. It reaches this object in early 2019.*
2014 MU69 was discovered in June 2014 by the Hubble Space Telescope. Based on its brightness and distance, it was estimated to have a diameter of 30–45 km (20–30 mi), with an orbital period of 293 years, low inclination and low eccentricity. This unexcited orbit meant that it was a cold classical Kuiper belt object, which likely had not undergone significant perturbations. Further observations in May and July 2015 greatly reduced the uncertainties in the orbit, making it a suitable target for New Horizons. The probe continues to study the Kuiper Belt region until 2022.*
The first mission to a gas giant using solar sail propulsion
Solar sail propulsion is a new method of space travel that requires no fuel, but instead captures the Sun's energy in the form of high-speed gas particles and photons. Known as the "solar wind", this stream of charged particles can be harnessed so that it strikes large mirrors, gradually accelerating a craft to extremely high speeds.
It was first demonstrated in 2010 with a 14m (46 ft) Japanese experimental probe called IKAROS. This passed by Venus at a distance of 80,800 km (50,200 mi). It was followed by a NASA spacecraft – NanoSail-D2 – in 2011.
Later in this decade, a much larger spacecraft is deployed, again by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). This measures 50m (164 ft) and is shaped like a flower. It features a hybrid propulsion method that combines sailing with an ion-propulsion engine, powered by embedded solar cells. The craft is sent to explore Jupiter and the nearby Trojan asteroids that share the planet's orbit.**
The first prototype Stratobus is launched
The Stratobus – developed by a collaboration of European investors – is a cross between a drone and a satellite. In some ways, it resembles Project Loon, a network of high-altitude balloons that Google has been developing. Unlike Project Loon, which is partially automated, the Stratobus is completely automated, with a longer lifespan and much wider variety of uses.
Operating in a fixed position for up to five years, the Stratobus is placed at an altitude of 12.5 miles (66,000 ft) – the lower reaches of the stratosphere. Each airship measures nearly 100 metres long and 30 metres in diameter, with a shell fabric made of braided carbon fibre. It has a payload capacity of 200 kg (440 lb), enough to carry a significant amount of scientific equipment, sensors and communication devices.* Power comes from solar panels that rotate in response to sunlight and energy storage is made possible by a light reversible fuel cell.
Stratobus offers a cheaper alternative to satellites, while also complementing the latter if need be. It can handle a diverse range of missions including observation, security, telecommunications, broadcasting and navigation. However, along with an explosion in the use of drones* and other unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) emerging around this time, concerns are raised over yet another layer of surveillance and spying with potential to intrude upon the lives of citizens.*
Launch of the BIOMASS mission
BIOMASS is a €400 million Earth Observation mission launched by the European Space Agency (ESA). It provides the first truly comprehensive measurements of global forest biomass. High resolution maps of tropical, temperate and boreal forest biomass are generated, using a radar sensor powerful enough to determine both the height and wood content of individual trees. These ultra-accurate maps help scientists address fundamental questions about changes in forest structure – especially in tropical regions, where ground data are scant. They also help put a figure on the carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and land-use change, making it possible to form better estimates of future climate change. The mission runs from 2019-2024.*
Credit: ESA/AOES Medialab
Europe's Galileo satellite navigation system is fully operational
Galileo is a global navigation satellite system (GNSS) built by the European Union (EU) and European Space Agency (ESA). The €5 billion project is named after the Italian astronomer Galileo Galilei. One of the aims of Galileo is to provide a high-precision positioning system upon which European nations can rely, independently from the Russian GLONASS, American GPS, and Chinese Compass systems, which can be disabled in times of war or political conflict.
When in operation, it uses two ground operation centres near Munich, Germany and in Fucino, Italy. In 2010, Prague in the Czech Republic was voted by EU ministers as the headquarters for the project. In 2011, the first two of four operational satellites were launched to validate the system. The next two followed in 2012, making it possible to test Galileo "end-to-end". Once this In-Orbit Validation (IOV) phase was completed, more satellites were launched, reaching Initial Operational Capability (IOC) in the middle of the decade. Full completion of the 30 satellites in the Galileo system (27 operational + 3 active spares) is achieved in 2019.* Europe now has its own independent satellite navigation capability.*
In addition to basic navigation services free of charge (giving horizontal and vertical measurements accurate to within 1 metre), Galileo provides a unique global Search and Rescue (SAR) function. Satellites can relay distress signals from a user's transmitter to the Rescue Coordination Centre, which then initiates a rescue operation. At the same time, the system provides a signal to the user, informing them that their situation has been detected and that help is on the way. This latter feature is a major upgrade compared to the existing GPS and GLONASS systems, which do not provide feedback to the user. The use of basic (low-precision) Galileo services is free and open to everyone. High-precision capabilities are available for paying commercial users and for military use.
Credit: Lukas Rohrt
Computers break the exaflop barrier
An exaflop is 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 (a million trillion, or a quintillion) calculations per second. The world's top supercomputers are now reaching this speed, which is a 1000-fold improvement over those of a decade earlier.* This exponential growth will continue for many years to come.
Personal computers are becoming ever more compact and sophisticated, with laptops and other mobile devices far outnumbering desktops.* Physical hard drives have become almost redundant, with most storage now done online using "virtual drives" in remote servers, aided by the growth in broadband speeds and wireless communications.
Web applications have reached startling levels of sophistication, especially where search engines are concerned. These not only find keywords in a search, but also interpret the context and semantics of the request, often with voice recognition software. Natural language processing had already begun to emerge some years earlier with Siri and other such tools. This form of AI, acting like a personal assistant, is now even more powerful and versatile.* Users can ask highly specific questions and receive detailed answers customised to their exact requirements.
Bionic eyes with high resolution are commercially available
Following years of trials, high resolution bionic eyes are now available for patients with degenerative vision loss. The first prototypes of this technology were somewhat crude and pixelated, with less than 100 dots of resolution. However, these new versions provide over 1000 dots, allowing patients to recognise faces and read large print.*
Bionic eyes continue to gain in sophistication over subsequent decades, making rapid progress in resolution and visual quality. Fully artificial eyes are eventually developed that actually provide better vision than healthy eyes. This leads even people with normal eyes to "upgrade" their sight.
A vaccine to treat melanoma
Melanoma is the deadliest form of skin cancer, killing over 48,000 people worldwide each year. During the 2010s, attempts were made to develop an implantable vaccine to treat the condition. In preclinical trials, 50 percent of mice treated with two doses of the vaccine – animals that would otherwise have died from melanoma within about 25 days – showed complete tumour regression. The Phase I study involving humans was completed in 2015* with similar success. By the end of this decade,* after subsequent phases and approval by the FDA, it is available to the wider public.
A small, disc-like sponge – about the size of a fingernail and made from a biodegredable polymer – is implanted under the skin. This contains growth factors and components designed to activate and reprogram a patient's own immune cells "on site". By controlling their biology, it can instruct the immune cells to patrol the body and hunt for cancer cells, killing them. Although initially designed to target cancerous melanoma in skin, this method has potential in treating many other types of cancer. It also helps to lower the cost of cancer treatments, by shifting vaccine production from the laboratory to directly within a patient's own body.*
Connected vehicle technology is being deployed in a number of countries
Many of the world's cars are already linked to the Internet in some way. By 2019, another layer of technology is being added in the form of wireless connections between vehicles.* Using a combination of Wi-Fi and GPS signals, they are now able to alert drivers to potential hazards or obstructions. For example, if a car two vehicles ahead of the driver brakes, but the car immediately in front does not, this technology warns him/her with a loud beep and flashing red lights on the windshield to hit the brakes.
By communicating with each other and the roadway infrastructure, cars now have greatly improved safety, while traffic congestion and carbon emissions are reduced. In fact, the system is so effective that in some countries, accident fatalities drop by 80%.* It soon becomes mandatory, due to the obvious economic and safety benefits. This technology had already begun to appear on trucks, a few years earlier. Now passenger cars are using it too.
Automated freight transport
Autonomous rapid transit has already been in place at certain airports and on city metro systems. By 2019, it has begun spreading to public roads, with significant numbers of driverless trucks appearing.* These are capable of travelling hundreds of miles on their own, negotiating traffic and obstacles using advanced GPS technologies.
They have a number of advantages over human drivers – such as being able to operate for 24 hours a day without getting tired, never being absent, and not requiring a salary or training. The trucks can also detect mechanical or software faults. These automated vehicles will eventually include cars, taxis and other types of road vehicles, becoming widespread by the 2030s.
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